Monday, March 2, 2009

Golf Demographics: Surviving Through the Ages

I received a comment last week that brought up an issue I had been planning on discussing since this blog’s inception. One-Eyed Golfer, an accomplished blogger in the golf realm, introduced demographics into the conversation on the health of the sport. He charged Gen X and Gen Y with responsibility for declining rounds and revenues, but left the door open for further discussion. Basically, the argument presented was based on the outlook held by younger Americans that golf is too time consuming and too costly. Though I agree that my generation and the one preceding me are playing fewer rounds than our parents (one cannot refute hard data), I argue that the game has yet to benefit from retiring Baby Boomers. Furthermore, I believe the game has the potential to adjust to the Gen X and Gen Y lifestyles through appealing to families and time-constrained players.

First of all, let me clarify the terms I will be using here to discuss generations. The Baby Boomers, which makes up about 25% of the country, were born between 1946 and 1964 (ages 63-45), according to the Census Bureau. Next, Generation X (Gen X), often called the "baby bust" for declining fertility rates after the Baby Boom, was born between 1964 and 1976 (ages 45-33). And finally, Generation Y (Gen Y) was born from 1976 to 2001 (ages 33-38). Pictured above, the population pyramid as of the 2000 US Census shows the layout of the US population by age. Note the bulge from ages 54-35 on either side to understand the impact Baby Boomers have had on the US population just by their sheer numbers. In the 2000 Census, the age group consisting of 45-54 year olds increased 55% of the 1990 Census. This dramatic increase will carry through for years to come. According to the Census Bureau projections, the 65 and older age group is expected more than double by 2050. An older population means great things for the game of golf.

As one of the liveliest generations this country has experienced, the Baby Boomers will require further activity through retirement. I foresee hundreds of thousands of Americans in the next 10-15 years moving on or near golf courses to be close to the game. My perception drives this opinion, but a study from 2006 showing the Baby Boomers playing fewer rounds per year, as compared to their predecessor, but at a higher participation rate, reinforces my premonition. This is good news; even though the Boomers are playing more infrequently than those before them, more of them are playing. The downside – infrequency of play – can be easily attributed to something that is great for our economy, but hurting the game of golf: the Baby Boomers are still working. Frankly, they do not even want to be associated with retirement. Even the AARP underwent a makeover to adapt. The group does not spell out the entire name anymore. Christine Donohoo, associate executive director of the membership division at the association, stated “the boomers want to be seen as vibrant - and we need to be responsive to that.” The Boomers have built their generation around that of activity and change, and basically, they are not coping well with aging. Accordingly, the average retirement age has been increasing at a steady rate over the past couple of decades. Older Americans possess a greater expectation to be self-reliant throughout retirement and provide wealth to their children and grandchildren after death. I am an optimist, though. As it relates to the game of golf, however, more workers equal fewer golfers. Retirement and golf have been synonymous among my generation and for good reason. The game is challenging yet easy on an older person’s body, and it supplies enjoyment and needed exercise. Studies have actually shown that golfers live longer than others and that the activity involved in playing one round of golf can even make you sleep better. The game stands to reap higher play and greater revenues when the Baby Boomers retire, but with what is happening to almost everyone’s 401Ks, many Boomers are pushing their retirement date back. Golf will have to wait.

On the other hand, golf has not been too popular with Gen Y and Gen X. We believe the game is too slow paced, takes too much time, costs too much, and does not constitute ample exercise. I love the game and always will. But, living in downtown Los Angeles, taking a full load of challenging courses, and trying to build a social and professional network, I rarely find time to get on a course. And I mean rarely. Last semester, excluding holidays, I played three times. To put this in perspective, if I did not play three times over a five-day span in high school I would not have slept. In college, on the brink of entering the real world, I can not find time to enjoy a round, and neither can most of my classmates and co-workers. We, Gen Y, have too many things going on, too many pressures to be successful, and too many appealing alternatives to get outside and exercise. The generation before us, many of whom are our parents, feels the same way. Yet, they have one more factor that keeps them off the course: children. With pressures to put their children through the best schools and provide for them the best opportunities for success, a parent can not spend 5-6 hours on the golf course very often. Nor do they want to spend that kind of money on themselves.

Nevertheless, solutions to the Gen X and Gen Y problems do exist. Implementing them, however, will be a real challenge. First, the game needs to get shorter. Designers of executive courses, like Knight’s Play (pictured adjacent) and par-3 courses are beginning to understand this with some recent courses. The game can market itself as a sport that can be played in less than two hours and still be worthwhile. The top designers will be reticent to this movement, but if people prove this profitable, the Pete Dyes and Jack Nicklauses of the world will follow (well, maybe not those two). These courses are cheaper than the traditional courses, too. I generally turn my nose up to executive courses, but usually because the holes are uninteresting and poorly maintained. Make them fun and in good shape and I will attend. So will others.

Next, the game needs to be marketed as a family experience. Show parents the benefit of learning the rules and etiquette of the game, and how professional golfers are the only professional athletes that take responsibility for self-administering the rules. Open courses that let families play two or three holes together without pressure from serious golfers to keep a steady pace. What is more, market golf to children, for they are the future of this game. The ones that catch on will graduate to full-length courses. Gen Y parents want to be around their children and teach them new things while keeping them away from video games, TV, and computers. Walking around a beautiful, green golf course for a couple of hours in a day with your children is a great way for families to connect and interact. Later, parents can drop off their adolescents and teenagers to enjoy the sport with their friends and build camaraderie.

If the game can realize its potential among the younger generations, it could have a bright future in American sports. Golf has the ability to bring generations together as a binding force, which it already is. Younger Americans need to stop associating the game with reirement. And, frankly, the Baby Boomers need to retire. The sport will always be successful in the older demographic. Leave the country clubs to the retired and upper class, and give us something new. If that happens, we can all enjoy the game in our own way.

2 comments:

  1. While my backswing may be less than admirable, your post certainly inspired me to hit the links more frequently. One of the successes of your post is the way you manage to weave together factual information, your own opinion and analysis, and your own experience to provide emotional context. Your analysis flows very well from its critique of current demographics and problems to a look at the future of the game and its players. In doing so it also meshes well with your personal development which you use to contextualize the factual information and provide a concrete and powerful example. I found your definitions at the beginning of your post quite useful in framing the discussion and providing enough background to bring any reader up to speed. The graphics you included are relevant and provide more evidence for your claims and thus serve your post very well.

    While you link to both credible and interesting sources, you seem to use links sparingly, and providing more supporting information will only make your arguments stronger. For example when you say “with what is happening to almost everyone’s 401Ks,” it would be useful to link to some evidence showing the change, and most noticeably the decline in value of the average 401K. Another area that feels underdeveloped is your discussion near the end of your post of the existing attempts at solutions, such as executive courses, and different marketing strategies. You mention some of the aspects of these different categories of courses, but could expand with more evidence and analysis. An example would be when you mention that the “holes are uninteresting and poorly maintained,” when the same is often true of many public courses as well. Overall a well thought out post with many interesting issues raised, a great way to open the discussion about the future of the game.

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  2. You definitely looked at the issue of golf in a very interesting way. I have always thought of the game as it is and have not realized its rules no longer suit our generation. Mechanical issues you could improve on would be adding in more hyperlinks, for instance try to bring in some sources where you explained the definition of baby boomers and made your statement of golf being challenging yet easy on elderly’s body. Context-wise, I think this is a very solid post. You have thought outside the box in creating innovations to alter the golf into a sport where more people in our generation could relate to and take part in. My concern would be while, as you suggested, introducing executive courses and par-3 courses could be one attractive idea, have you considered the fact that changing the rules of golf would diverge the sport from its own traditio? I do not have enough resources and knowledge on the sport, but I mean there has to be reasons they made golf an 18-hole game, which usually lasts for over 3 hours, in the first place, do you agree? Also, while the executive and par-3 courses are developed to cater to the present baby boomers, what would happen 5 to 10 years later when the baby boomers finally retire and par-3 courses are not enough for them? Would you then suggest to switch golf back to the traditional 18-hole?

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